My friend, Seth, over on livejournal has written an interesting piece looking at the Obama defense in a different way, and it’s a read. I disagree with his analysis and here’s why:
I do not agree with Seth’s analysis of what has happened. Obama said over and over that he believes marriage is between opposite sex couples. Administrations have a great deal of leeway in how they defend laws.
Let’s assume for a moment that the case is decided in the government’s favor and that DOMA is upheld. It will then go to the 9th Circuit Appeals Court, which will likely overturn the decision and will then probably go to the Supreme Court, which is in the habit of overturning the 9th Circuit more than any other court. This process will probably take a good year or two, in the meantime, Obama doesn’t have to worry about doing anything because he can say that there’re pending court cases and to let them wend their way through their process.
At the end, the Supreme Court will uphold DOMA, not because it is constitutional, but because the majority will have Sotomayor at that point who is far more conservative than not.
This is a punt, and a highly insulting punt at that. Obama is proving, in his decisions on Gitmo detainees, continued defense of the patriot act, and now DOMA and DADT that he doesn’t really care about civil rights.
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